Day 17: This is a prolonged war. Cease fires will come and go. We have to endure:
Norayr Eblighatian
* Cease Fires:
I am taking my cues from the Lebanese & Syrian ‘civil’ wars. There were multiple cease fires; some were used to take a break & regroup while others were used to test the will of the enemy, or appease the regional superpowers.
There are two factors that are of concern: Turkey’s active involvement and the introduction of Jihadi forces.
Turks can prolong the fight until the last Azeri and the last Jihadi. Just study what has happened in Nakhichevan.
It might not be appropriate place, but I am reminded of a yogi-ism by Yogi Berra: “it ain’t over ‘till it’s over” and we have a peace treaty.
* Emotional Appeals vs. Foreign Policy Realism:
We are good at emotional appeals, but it is mainly active in social media. Turkey is good at foreign policy realism and you read a lot of political articles that defend the cause of Azerbaijan and territorial integrity.
The last time public opinion triumphed against foreign policy realism was during the Vietnam war; and that was the result of the American young generation revolt against the war.
The target of our emotional appeal are the people, who are usually not involved in foreign policy decision making. Furthermore, our narrative is quite ‘naïve’. For example, being the first Christian nation does not necessarily translate to any active support by someone who even knows it or believes it is true.
And nowadays the term ‘genocide’ has lost the significance we Armenians attach to it. There are the Khmer Rouge mass murders, the Rwandan genocide, the disputed genocide of Darfur, the genocide of the Yezidis by Daesh and many, many more. The term genocide is used for political reasons, not for attaining justice.It is true that some countries will side with our cause, but that is primarily to oppose Turkey and Turkey’s policies (not because we have convinced them with our narrative).
* Reorganization:
An articulate case was made by Hrach Kalsahakyan for the necessity of reorganization in many domains (including the Armenian Republic). I will limit my comments and point to his YouTube channel:
* Paradigm Shift:
– If (80 + 10 + Jihadists) are stacked against 3 million Armenians; then we better resort to asymmetric warfare.
– Armenians cannot prepare and fight the previous war; sooner or later that error in judgement will cost us dearly.
– As military costs mount and political stakes get higher, this battle and war has transformed into an existential state. We cannot defend ourselves with antiquated weapons, the same way that Arab countries could not (during the sixties and seventies) using old Soviet hardware.
– With the introduction of new generation ground detection radar and integrated areal drone strikes, the Turkish/Israeli technology has countered Russian/Armenian howitzers and tanks. Tactical training and courage go so far, before the balance tips.
– If 50 years of public relations by ‘Hai Thad’ committees have barely scratched the surface as far as genocide recognition, then it is time to reevaluate and change course if necessary. Armenian Diaspora role has to change from its fund-raising base. We have many ‘Hai Thad’ offices around the world. it is time to strengthen them and reorient them towards the support of the war effort.
– Finally, there are clear indications that the Southern Caucasus will turn into a testing ground for new military technologies. We need to shield our population from the ravages of these weapons.