It is Time to Start Planning for the Next War:
Norayr Eblighatian
• Asymmetric Warfare:
The numbers tell it all. 80+10 Million is a formidable formula, and we need to counter it by a combination of symmetric AND asymmetric approach. Asymmetric warfare is the only way to move forward (after the introduction of Turkey and Jihadists in the arena), and we better embrace it completely. This will be extremely challenging as we need to go beyond norms & conventions and will be needing new formations.
• UAV airspace:
We simply cannot lose the UAV domain, because that can have dire consequences on the ground.
Yes, it is true that the Armenians have shot down multiple UAVs from the ground; but the next technology will be UAV swarms, and their primary goal is to overwhelm ground defenses.
There are two technologies that can secure the UAV airspace: MANPADS and UAV hunters. It is time to develop these technologies by Armenians, and the only measure of success is exporting the production on the international market. That is where they are tested and perfected instead of crises of our own. Turkey has followed this formula for years in Syria; and we can learn from that experience. As opposed to planeloads from Israel, we need domestic development, production, and deployment.
• Cyber Warfare:
Welcome to the 21st century, where cyber warfare is a tool like so many others. It is a mechanism to reach out from far and touch someone or something. This is the domain where our youth will be challenged and they need our guidance to succeed.
One should not forget the twin technology of cyber defense, which needs to encompass all of our electronic infrastructures.
• Border Population Defense:
The enemy has methodically shelled civilian targets. It is not concerned about international norms and public opinion, because in the era of claims and counter-claims, international public opinion is confused.
We need a Marshall plan to fortify our border areas, protect the population and if need be counter civilian shelling in a symmetric manner.
This is not a call for an Armenian Maginot Line which was bypassed and breached, but a kibbutzim style clusters of militarized communities.
The coming infiltration of Jihadists through the border will force us in this direction.
•Jihadists & Mercenaries:
The introduction of Jihadists into this arena exposes a long-term strategy of bleeding us to death. Jihadists are expendable while our soldiers are not, and counting Jihadi bodies is the wrong metric. Our success criteria lie in an international coalition of the anti-Jihadi alliance. Unfortunately, this would also mean that our neighborhood will be a fighting ground. But that is one issue we do not have to be concerned about anymore. It is a fait accompli.
• United Republic:
For years we have proclaimed “United, Free & Independent” Armenia.
o We proclaimed our independence in 1991.o In 2018 we had the velvet revolution that started us on the way to freedom from the colonizers (the dual-citizen oligarchs).
o When will be the year of unification between Armenia and Artsakh?
I am told that unification is a delicate issue.
Who is this elusive entity that is concerned about a united and stronger Armenia?
The enemy does not distinguish between Armenia and Artsakh, the same way that it did not concern itself with the Armenian religious denominations in 1915.
• The 5th Column:
This is a good segue to speak about the 5th column that has been vocal even during a national war.
Yes, we do believe in freedom of speech. But there are national emergencies that restrict that open-ended speech and we need laws to defend us from the 5th column and the ravages that it produces.
• Single Source of Truth:
Our media (especially in the Diaspora) is completely impractical during crises. We need a mechanism to follow the news and Facebook is filling that gap. Unfortunately, Facebook is also the source of fake news. Therefore, we spend an unimaginable amount of time trying to sift between contradictory ‘news’.
We need a ‘mobilization process’, whereby our media enlists young volunteers (during crises) to sift-and-publish news events. These ‘war rooms’ are essential in many aspects.