Modern warfare assumes a national and state economic capacity, plus a robust base of technology. The Armenians did poorly in the arms race between Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia. This discrepancy in economics, technology and diplomacy is a reminder of Sun Tzu famous maxim: “Every battle is won before it’s ever fought.”
“War is too serious a matter to entrust to military men”
Georges Clemenceau
Norayr Eblighatian
Armenians in the Russian/Soviet empire have not gone through a process of national liberation to attain their independence.
- When the Czarist empire fell apart and the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic disintegrated by the defections of Georgia and Azerbaijan, Armenia was left alone and declared its independence.
- When the Soviet empire collapsed, Armenia declared its independence after the dissolution of the USSR.
In both instances, there was no struggle for independence to coalesce state sovereignty doctrines and the created vacuum was speedily filled by weak/untested institutions.
During the inception of the third republic, the Artsakh war of liberation did occur and the Artsakh revolting elite took over the Armenian government.
However, there were some anomalies from the very beginning:
- The group that started the Artsakh revolt began squabbling about the return of the conquered lands, but there was no internal consensus about a political formula to move forward.
- On the external front, the group agreed on the “Madrid Principles” which stated (among other items):
- Return of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control;
- The right of all internally displaced persons and refugees to return to their former places of residence.
- The same group did not incorporate Artsakh into Armenia and created a separate republic (a diplomatically unsustainable approach).
- Armenians overall and the Armenian Republic specifically failed to populate the region between Armenia and Artsakh to have an integrated and contiguous geographic space.
- The same group started having oligarchic tendencies and selling government assets without replacing them with anything. The industrial base that the Soviets had established was sold off and the revenues pocketed.
- Finally, as a result of the Artsakh war and the teetering of the Armenian Republic, the western Armenian cause was put on the back burner. Practically, we could not have multiple fronts of confrontation and stayed focused on the Recognition of Genocide which is a moral issue and not a political program.
In simple terms, the state-building effort in the last 30 years was a failure (compared to Azerbaijan); and the lack of state capacity is one of the main causes of a weak army.
Furthermore, the unprecedented involvement of the General Staff in politics is a pure distraction from military preparedness. (Note: on February 25, 2021, the General Staff issued a statement signed by more than 40 other top Armenian generals (including General Onik Gasparyan) calling for the resignation of the Prime Minister and his government. This was condemned by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and the US Department of State, stating that the General Staff should not involve itself in politics).
Modern warfare assumes a national and state economic capacity, plus a robust base of technology. The Armenians did poorly in the arms race between Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia. This discrepancy in economics, technology, and diplomacy is a reminder of Sun Tzu’s famous maxim: “Every battle is won before it’s ever fought.”
One final note; We have a ticking time bomb that needs to be assessed very carefully. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement has the following clause: “The peacekeeping forces of the Russian Federation will be deployed for five years….”